Pricing the September 2026 Deadline: A PERT Cost Estimate for SME CRA Compliance
For a typical EU SME manufacturer (20-50 FTE, one product line, no existing CVD programme), the expected cost of meeting the CRA Article 14 reporting deadline on 11 September 2026 is approximately €39,700, with a 90% confidence interval of roughly €33,900-€45,500.
Why PERT for compliance work
Point estimates are dishonest for first-time compliance work. PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) forces structured three-point thinking on each task: optimistic, most likely, pessimistic. The expected value is E = (O + 4M + P) / 6, with standard deviation σ = (P - O) / 6. The result is a defensible mean plus a quantified uncertainty band, reproducible by anyone willing to swap in their own numbers.
What the work actually is
The September 2026 deadline doesn't require a full coordinated vulnerability disclosure programme. It does require enough infrastructure to detect, decide, and report under pressure within 24 hours. The minimum viable scope decomposes into twelve work packages, from scoping through to operational reserve for Q4.
- Scoping and gap assessment (E = €5,850)
- CVD policy drafting (E = €4,907)
- Intake mechanism, PSIRT design, detection capability, templates and runbook
- CSIRT contact registry, training, tabletop exercise
- Tooling, external legal review, operational reserve
What moves the number
Starting maturity is the biggest lever. Existing triage, SOC 2 or ISO 27001 documentation, and a customer support function able to absorb intake can together cut up to €21k from the baseline. The build-versus-buy decision on tooling is the second biggest. Homegrown audit-trail and notification workflows usually fail under regulatory scrutiny, which is the only time they matter.
The proportionality dividend
Article 47 requires market surveillance authorities to take SME status into account; Recital 120 requires it again when calibrating fines; and microenterprises and small enterprises are exempted entirely from fines for the 24-hour early warning failure. The GDPR enforcement pattern (guidance first, fines later for repeat offenders) is the realistic baseline. An SME that has visibly invested €40k in a credible Article 14 process is in a very different enforcement posture than one that has done nothing.
Read the full PERT model and table on our blog.
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